The Future of Energy: A Century Beyond Oil and Gas

Abstract: As the world accelerates its transition from fossil fuels to sustainable alternatives, it is imperative to examine the long-term impacts on global energy demand, emissions, and supply chains. This paper outlines the trajectory of oil and natural gas over the next 100 years, identifies the energy sources poised to replace them, and evaluates the sectors and critical minerals required to support this transition. We compare the environmental footprint of mining key transition materials versus traditional oil and gas extraction and highlight the geopolitical landscape of mineral resources.

1. The Decline of Oil and Natural Gas Over the Next 100 Years

Global oil demand in 2025 is approximately 103 million barrels per day (Mb/d), with road transportation accounting for nearly 50% of this. If the world transitions fully to electric vehicles (EVs), oil demand could be cut in half, reducing global demand to approximately 52–55 Mb/d. However, even with aggressive EV adoption, oil will remain relevant for aviation, petrochemicals, and certain industrial applications well beyond 2050.

A realistic EV transition will be gradual. As of 2025, EVs represent about 4% (58 million EVs / 1.6 billion cars ~=4%) of the global vehicle fleet and 15–20% of new vehicle sales. Even with compound annual growth of 20–25%, it could take until 2050 or later to electrify the majority of passenger cars. Electrification of heavy-duty trucks and buses is likely to lag further behind due to weight, range, and infrastructure constraints. Meanwhile, many countries in the Global South are expected to continue using internal combustion engine vehicles well into the second half of the century. As such, a full transition to EVs globally may not be achieved until around 2075–2100, depending on regional policies, costs, and charging infrastructure expansion.

Natural gas demand currently sits around 4,100 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually. It is projected to plateau by 2030, followed by a gradual decline. By 2100, global demand could drop to 1,000–2,000 bcm, used primarily for hydrogen production, industrial heating, and flexible power generation

2. The Rise of Alternative Energy Sources

A significant rise in renewable and nuclear energy will counterbalance the phasing out of fossil fuels. The energy mix in 2125 is expected to be led by:

• Renewables (solar, wind, hydro): 55–65%

• Nuclear (fission, possibly fusion): 10–20%

• Energy Storage (batteries, hydrogen): Essential for grid balancing

• Bioenergy and synthetic fuels: Used in hard-to-electrify sectors like aviation

Electrification will dominate final energy use, rising from 20% today to potentially 70% by 2125. Hydrogen and synthetic fuels will play supportive roles in the transportation and industrial sectors.

3. Sectoral and Material Requirements for the Transition

Replacing oil and gas requires a robust value chain involving new industries and materials. Key sectors include:

• Energy generation: Solar panel and wind turbine manufacturing, nuclear engineering

• Energy storage: Battery production, hydrogen electrolyzers, and recycling

• Transport: EV production, charging infrastructure

• Grid infrastructure: High-voltage lines, smart grids, and semiconductors

• Heavy industry: Green steel, cement, and carbon capture

Critical minerals underpinning this transition include:

Mineral	Key Application
Lithium	EV and grid batteries
Cobalt	Battery cathodes
Nickel	Energy-dense batteries
Copper	Wires, motors, grid infrastructure
Rare Earths	Wind turbines, EV motors
Graphite	Battery anodes
Silver	Solar panels
Platinum/PGMs	Hydrogen electrolysis

4. Emissions Comparison: Mining vs Oil and Gas

Mining transition minerals is energy-intensive but emits far less CO2 over the product lifecycle than oil and gas combustion. For a more apples-to-apples comparison: burning one barrel of crude oil emits approximately 0.43 metric tons of CO2, and a typical gasoline-powered car burns about 17 barrels per 20,000 km per year, equating to 7.3 tons of CO2 annually. In contrast, mining and refining the lithium, cobalt, and nickel for one EV battery (equivalent to 0.2–0.3 tons of mineral input) emits roughly 1–2 tons of CO2 one time, after which the EV produces no tailpipe emissions.

Thus, while the initial emissions from mineral extraction are significant, they are amortized over a much longer period and do not recur like those from fuel combustion.

• Mining lithium for one EV: ~2–5 tons CO2 (one-time)

• Driving a gasoline car over 200,000 km: ~35–45 tons CO2 (recurring)

While oil is burned repeatedly, minerals are used in products lasting decades and can often be recycled. Lifecycle emissions from renewable systems are estimated to be 80–90% lower than fossil fuel systems.

5. Geopolitical Distribution of Critical Minerals

Global supply of key materials is geographically concentrated:

• Lithium: Australia, Chile, Argentina, China

• Cobalt: Democratic Republic of Congo (~70%), Russia

• Nickel: Indonesia, Philippines, Russia

• Copper: Chile, Peru, China, USA

• Graphite: China, Mozambique, Madagascar

• Rare Earths: China, USA, Myanmar

• Platinum: South Africa, Russia

This concentration poses new geopolitical challenges similar to those seen in the oil-rich Middle East during the 20th century.

Conclusion

Over the next century, oil and natural gas will be marginalized by a cleaner, mineral-intensive, and electrified energy system. While this transition offers massive reductions in carbon emissions, it also introduces new dependencies on mining, refining, and recycling. The success of the energy transition hinges on responsible mineral sourcing, technological innovation, and global cooperation to avoid repeating the geopolitical pitfalls of the fossil fuel era.