Nationalism and Gold Prices

Abstract: Gold has long served as a store of value during times of uncertainty. While traditional factors influencing gold prices include inflation, interest rates, and currency trends, geopolitical tensions, particularly those driven by rising nationalism are playing an increasingly important role. This paper examines the correlation between nationalist movements and gold demand, provides a regional outlook on nationalism through 2030, and contrasts the gold investment philosophies of Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio, two of the world’s most influential investors.

1. Nationalism as a Gold Catalyst

Nationalism, especially when accompanied by trade protectionism, currency instability, or geopolitical conflict, often triggers investor risk-aversion. This leads to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. For example, gold surged after the 2016 Brexit vote and during the U.S.–China trade war from 2018 to 2020. More recently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, driven by nationalist motives pushed gold above $2,000/oz as investors sought refuge from market volatility. The price of gold is $3,363/oz as of June 23, 2025.

Regional Nationalist Trends (2025–2030)

• United States & Canada: A potential resurgence of Trumpism may revive protectionist economic policies. In Canada, right-leaning populism is growing but remains marginal.

• Europe: Right-wing nationalist parties are gaining ground, notably in Germany, France, and Belgium. However, coalition politics continue to restrain their full influence.

• Asia-Pacific: China’s techno-nationalism and India’s Hindu nationalist governance are expected to remain dominant. Both nations are asserting global influence in ways that may provoke regional tensions.

• Middle East & Africa: Religious nationalism is rising in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. In the Middle East, nationalism is often tied to state-driven geopolitical competition, adding to global risk.

• Latin America: Populist-nationalist leaders like Argentina’s Javier Milei reflect a broader trend of anti-globalist sentiment in the region.

  
  

These regional movements contribute to an unpredictable global environment that often benefits gold as a defensive asset.

2. Buffett vs. Dalio: Diverging Views on Gold

Investor opinion on gold is divided. Warren Buffett, through Berkshire Hathaway, has historically been skeptical. He views gold as a non-productive asset, stating, “It has no utility and just sits there.” While Berkshire briefly invested in Barrick Gold in 2020, it exited the position within a year, reaffirming Buffett’s preference for productive, cash-generating businesses.

In contrast, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, is a long-standing advocate of gold. He views it as a strategic hedge against currency debasement, debt crises, and global instability. As of Q1 2025, Bridgewater holds approximately $347 million in gold-related assets, $319 million (~1.5% of 13F equity portfolio in Q2-2025) in the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD). Dalio has publicly stated, “If you don’t own gold, you know neither history nor economics.”

Conclusion

Nationalism is a growing geopolitical force that contributes to market uncertainty. As a result, gold continues to play a vital role in global portfolios as a hedge against rising risks. While investors like Buffett remain skeptical, others like Dalio view gold as essential protection in an increasingly fragmented world. With nationalist trends projected to persist through 2030, the case for gold as a geopolitical hedge remains strong.