Will EVs Kill Oil Demand? OPEC+ vs. EIA’s Diverging Futures

Abstract: As the world shifts toward clean energy, global oil demand forecasts are splitting sharply. OPEC+ projects that oil demand will not peak before 2050, instead rising to ~120 million barrels per day (mb/d). In contrast, the EIA expects demand to peak around 2035, while the IEA forecasts an earlier peak by 2029 in its Net Zero scenario. The core issue: will electric vehicles (EVs) and energy transition policies be enough to trigger lasting oil demand decline?

Section 1: OPEC+ vs. EIA: Diverging Forecasts

OPEC+ argues that global EV adoption, while growing, remains limited in impact. Though EVs account for ~20% of new car sales in 2024, their share of the total global fleet is still under 5%. Most demand growth, they say, will come from non-OECD nations like India and Africa, where EV infrastructure and affordability lag. OPEC sees internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles dominating well into the 2040s, and heavy reliance on oil in aviation, shipping, and petrochemicals continuing for decades.

The EIA, on the other hand, anticipates falling battery costs and stronger policy incentives will accelerate EV adoption, especially in the U.S., leading to a plateau in oil demand around 110 mb/d by 2035. The IEA’s more aggressive scenario assumes coordinated climate action and a ban on new ICE vehicle sales, resulting in demand peaking by 2029 at ~105 mb/d.

Decade-wise:

• By 2030, OPEC+ expects oil demand to hit ~113 mb/d, while EIA sees slowing growth. IEA projects a peak.

• By 2040, OPEC+ still sees growth (~118 mb/d), while EIA expects demand to level off. IEA expects a steeper decline.

• By 2050, OPEC+ projects 120 mb/d; EIA sees modest decline; IEA forecasts a deep drop due to net-zero policies.

Section 2: Estimated probabilities

Peak Oil Demand (OPEC+, EIA, IEA)

Estimated Probability for Peak Oil

The weighted average based on the midpoints of the estimated probability ranges is:

• Peak Year: ~2041

• Demand Level: ~113.9 mb/d

  
  

This represents the most balanced outcome considering all three scenarios (OPEC+, EIA, and IEA NZE). Let me know if you'd like this visualized as well.

Conclusion

In reality, the outcome will likely blend these views. EVs will reduce demand, mainly in wealthy nations, but oil will remain essential in the Global South and for hard-to-electrify sectors.